According to a survey by GKI Economic Research Co., conducted with EU support, consumer outlooks in January remained unchanged compared with December, while those of companies deteriorated slightly. The summary indicator of expectations, the GKI Business Climate Index, fell by almost three points. Firms’ willingness to hire remained unchanged, and their overall expectations for the development of selling prices edged up slightly on a monthly basis. In the first month of the year, respondent companies judged the predictability of the business environment to have improved noticeably.

GKI’s business confidence index declined by nearly four points in January compared with the previous month, effectively returning to its level of last November. The industrial confidence index dropped sharply, by almost five points, while both the retail and services indices fell by three points each. By contrast, the construction indicator rose by three points, albeit from a relatively low base. Looking ahead, construction remains the least optimistic sector, while business services are the most upbeat.

The overall employment indicator, which reflects companies’ staffing expectations, remained unchanged in January compared with December. Over the next three months, 9% of firms plan to expand their workforce, while 12% expect to reduce it. In industry and business services, those intending to hire outnumber those planning layoffs. By contrast, in construction, the majority of firms anticipate staff reductions.

Perceptions of the predictability of the business environment improved markedly in January compared with the previous survey. The most pronounced gains were seen in the services sector, though industrial firms also found the environment considerably more predictable than in December.

The price indicator, which reflects firms’ expectations for their selling prices over the next three months, had been creeping up gradually through the autumn and winter. By January, it reached a ten-month high. Over the coming quarter, 35% of companies plan to raise prices, while 8% intend to cut them, compared with 29% and 9%, respectively, in December.

In December, GKI’s consumer confidence index rose to a two-year high and then remained unchanged in January. In the current month, households assessed both their financial situation over the past 12 months and their prospects for the next year as slightly improved compared with the previous survey. By contrast, they viewed the country’s economic outlook for the next 12 months as slightly deteriorating, and their assessment of the money available for major purchases also edged lower.

The data behind the charts are available in the accompanying Excel file.

Methodology:

GKI Economic Research Co., following the methodology of the European Commission, calculates its business cycle index based on expectations in both the business sector and among households (consumers). The GKI economic sentiment index is a weighted average of the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index.

The GKI business confidence index is a weighted average of the industrial, retail, construction, and services confidence indices. The employment indicator reflects the difference between the share of firms planning to increase their workforce and those planning to reduce it over the next three months. The price indicator similarly captures the difference between the proportion of firms planning to raise selling prices and those planning to lower them.

The GKI consumer confidence index is the arithmetic mean of balance figures calculated from household responses on their financial situation over the past 12 months, their financial outlook for the next 12 months, expectations for the country’s economic situation, and prospects for purchases of durable consumer goods.

GKI publishes seasonally adjusted data, meaning that the appropriate mathematical methods are used to filter out seasonal effects, such as higher demand before Christmas or reduced production during summer holidays.