In accordance with the forecast of GKI, following a temporary rapid GDP growth in 2014, the dynamics of the Hungarian economy set to decelerate in 2015. GDP grew by 3.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, by 2.7 per cent in the second one and by 2.4 per cent in the third one. In the next quarters GDP is likely to increase only by about 2 per cent. GKI forecasts Hungary’s GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2015 and by about 2.3 per cent in 2016. Following its stagnation in 2015, investments will drop next year (by 5 per cent). However, consumption will expand at a rate close to that of GDP, slightly lagging behind it in 2015, and slightly exceeding it in 2016 (around 2.5 per cent). Export surplus increased spectacularly in 2015. It will rise more slowly in 2016. External and internal equilibria are likely to develop favourably both in 2015 and 2016. Nevertheless, due to, among others, the unpredictability of economic policy, Hungary’s upgrading by international credit rating agencies is still some time ahead. The extra room of manoeuvring of banks resulting from the reduction of bank tax is diminished by the more active intervention of the National Bank of Hungary. No turnaround can be expected in the outflow of capital or labour due to the lack of perspectives. The deterioration of public services will continue.
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