The 2 per cent GDP growth in the third quarter of 2016 confirmed the correctness of the 2 per cent growth forecast of GKI for 2016. In recent weeks, the IMF reduced its forecast to 2 per cent and the EU to 2.1 per cent, which is significantly lower than expected growth rates in the region. The significant decline in investments in 2016 will be followed by a noticeable growth in 2017 mainly due to the restart of the inflow of EU transfers, while the increase of consumption, which is very rapid this year, will continue similarly. GKI expects GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2017, which is almost identical with the projections of the IMF and the EU. At present, internal and external equilibria are very favourable; however, some manageable deterioration can be expected next year due to the start of government spending related to the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Inflation began to pick up, too.
You can download the forecast from here.
