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The Hungarian economy grew by 4.9 per cent in 2018, and it was probably the second fastest growth rate in the EU after Poland. In the past decades, faster growth was registered in Hungary only once, in 2004. All forecasts expect a significant slowdown in 2019. GKI predicts a rate of around 3.5 per cent. GDP growth in the EU is also slowing down, and the European Commission cut its growth forecast from 2 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2019, after last year’s 2.1 per cent. Although the indicators of economic disequilibria are favourable (two credit rating agencies upgraded Hungary’s general government debt), the foreign trade surplus is falling significantly, and inflation and the general government deficit are among the highest in the EU. Over the past few weeks, a tsunami of government programmes swept across the country.

You can download the forecast from here.

The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

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