The Hungarian economy expanded by a rate of around 5 per cent in 2019, one of the fastest in the EU. Although the October-November data do not yet indicate a slowdown, the deterioration in industrial expectations is a warning signal. The growth rate of construction slowed down markedly, whereas wage growth and retail sales accelerated. At the same time, macroeconomic equilibria were worsening, inflation accelerated, the forint fell spectacularly, the general government deficit went up and the current account turned to deficit. The spreading coronavirus is already exacerbating the global economy through its fear-inducing effect. GKI expects a GDP growth of around 3-3.5 per cent in 2020.
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The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.
