The objective of the report is to forecast long-term economic trends (until 2015) that are closely related to life annuity. It is based on a former report of GKI Co. with the same title and objectives made in early 2007 and updated at the end of the same year. It is referred to as the base report. In the base report we analysed the demographic, money and housing market trends, and we provided an overview on their changes, their specific features and driving forces. Based on these factors we elaborated our long-term forecasts until 2050 for demographic trends and until 2015 for the rest of the factors.
The authors of the updated report reconsidered the forecasts in autumn 2007 in the light of the developments of the preceding period with the exception of the demographic projection, there was no reason for update it. The reason for this is that the rate of growth of the population is a relatively slow process with significant inertia and since the preparation of the base report no supplementary information has appeared that would put demographic trends into a different context.
The present paper is completely in line with the updated version of late 2007 of the base report in every aspect. This is now not more than the updated and reviewed version of the earlier report. Our knowledge base became wider in the previous years, since we can use the supplementary information that appeared in the past 12 months. We publish the base report and our new fundamental conclusions in a short form and we focus on developments of the year 2008. Those conclusions are presented in a more detailed form that led to modification in our earlier forecasts. We do not deal with the review of the demographic trends now.
The methods and procedures applied did not change, so we do not disclose them again.
In the first part of our report we present our long-term macroeconomic forecast the macroeconomic development including our assumptions. After this we outline the expected changes of money and housing market trends in the future. The numerical forecasts are included n the enclosed Excel files.